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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 18th, 2015–Jan 19th, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Sea To Sky.

Give the recent snow a day or two to find its equilibrium before venturing into exposed avalanche terrain.

Confidence

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Wednesday

Weather Forecast

A weak ridge provides a break from heavy precipitation, but doesn't bring clear skies, through Monday and Tuesday. The freezing level hovers near 900 m and SW winds are light to moderate. On Wednesday, 10-15 cm snow is expected, with gradually warming temperatures.

Avalanche Summary

On Saturday, skiers triggered numerous small storm slabs and wind slabs were reportedly failing naturally to size 2. Natural activity probably peaked during the storm on Saturday night/Sunday, and remains possible on Monday.

Snowpack Summary

Two recent pulses of snow accompanied by strong S-SW winds have built deep wind slabs above a hard crust and/or surface hoar. The buried crust is most pronounced between about 1500 m and 2200 m. The distribution of the surface hoar seems spotty across the region, but some operators found it to be widespread in their tenure before the snow began burying it. Where the surface hoar exists, whumpfing indicates the touchiness of this interface. Deeper snowpack weaknesses (curst/facet and/or surface hoar layers formed in November and December) have fallen off the radar, but they could be reawakened with a very heavy load (like a cornice fall or wind slab) in the wrong spot (like a thin snowpack area, or high elevation northerly aspects where there is no strong crust above).

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.