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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 19th, 2015–Jan 20th, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Kananaskis.

Recent snowfalls and strong winds that have switched from SW to NW are creating touchy wind slabs. Conditions are ripe for human triggering.

Confidence

Fair

Weather Forecast

A NW flow will keep temperatures a bit on the cool side under mostly cloudy skies on Tuesday. Winds will be light to moderate from the NW. Only a trace amount of precipitation is expected over the next 48hrs.

Avalanche Summary

Visibility was limited today, but one large naturally triggered avalanche (possibly a size 3.) was observed on a SE aspect at Treeline. This slide was not very wide but the fracture was estimated at 100cm deep. This slide appeared to be 24 to 48hrs old.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 10cm of new snow in the past 24 to 36hrs has further buried the Jan 16th surface hoar layer which is now down 20 to 30cm at treeline. Moderate to strong SW winds have formed wind slabs in Alpine areas and open areas at Treeline. Where buried surface hoar exists, these slabs will be quite touchy to human triggering. A layer of facets remains above the December 13th crust now down 40 to 50cm is still producing moderate sudden collapse results. This will be a key layer to watch for the next little while. Alpine areas remain heavily wind effected.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.