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Confidence
Fair - Due to the number of field observations
Weather Forecast
Wednesday will see a mix of sun and cloud with generally light southwest winds. By Thursday evening a stronger weather system will impact the region bringing more steady snowfall and strong southwest winds. Freezing levels will hover around 1000m for the forecast period.
Avalanche Summary
No new avalanches have been reported.
Snowpack Summary
Current surfaces include a mix of stubborn wind slabs and settled storm snow in the alpine, and a hard rain crust at lower elevations. Surface hoar growth has been reported in sheltered areas.There is still concern for a buried crust/facet layer which formed in November. This woke up with the recent storm snow loading and has the potential for deep slabs and wide propagations. The likelihood of triggering this beast has dropped; however, if an avalanche released at this interface it would be highly destructive.
Problems
Deep Persistent Slabs
Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.