Monday afternoon or evening may bring 12-15mm of precipitation. This will be rain at low elevations and 10-20cm snow in higher elevations. The avalanche danger may reach 'Considerable' levels as a result yet weather models are uncertain.
Weather Forecast
Weather models are not agreeing as to precipitation amounts or its timing. "Sometime" Monday afternoon or evening may bring 10-20cm of snow and showers below 2200m. Tuesday and Wednesday may or may not be sun. The larger satellite image shows a series of Spring storms rolling into BC which may influence clouds and precipitation in our domain.
Snowpack Summary
10-20 cm snow Thursday night and a little more Saturday night has improved skiing yet it rests on a crust on solar aspects. The upper snowpack is moist or wet by the afternoon. The solid mid-pack bridges the weak base. The bottom 30cm of the snowpack is weak facets and depth hoar. Below 1500m there is no snow.
Avalanche Summary
No new avalanches noted in Maligne valley on Sunday. Numerous loose wet point and wet slab avalanches size 1.5 to 3 on West aspects noted in Icefields on Sunday likely triggered by rapid warming when the sun poked through the clouds.
Confidence
Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Monday
Problems
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Wet Slabs
Wet Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) that is generally moist or wet when the flow of liquid water weakens the bond between the slab and the surface below (snow or ground). They often occur during prolonged warming events and/or rain-on-snow events. Wet Slabs can be very unpredictable and destructive.
Cornices
Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.