A Special Public Avalanche Warning is in effect for the region. With a tricky snowpack near the tipping point it's time for conservative trip planning and careful terrain selection. Avoid exposure to overhead hazards.
Weather Forecast
Saturday and Saturday Night: Mix of sun and cloud, flurries, light northwest wind ... not much of significance ... however a warm ridge is approaching which means a temperature inversion with warm temperatures at treeline and alpine elevations will devolop over the next few days.SUNDAY: Mix of sun & cloud and a temperature inversion could mean valley fog (in places like the Elk Valley near Elkford) with sunshine above. Treeline and alpine temperatures just below zero. Light northerly winds.MONDAY: Mostly sunny with some low level (valley) cloud. Light and variable wind. Warmest temperatures at treeline and alpine elevations near zero.TUESDAY: Treeline and alpine temperatures just above zero. Wind becoming more westerly as the next pacific system approaches.
Avalanche Summary
The only reports we received were of small loose dry and small thin windslabs in the size 1, 1.5 and just maybe size 2.
Snowpack Summary
An unstable weak layer from mid-December (predominantly feathery surface hoar crystals and/or a sun crust) is found at treeline and below treeline elevations. Slabs can fail easily on this layer, either naturally or with the weight of a person or machine. Forecasted warm air temperatures could increase slab properties of the overlying snow and make this layer easier to trigger.The snowpack is variable across the region, but persistent slabs are generally a widespread problem. Wind slab and storm slab distribution will be more variable. New wind slabs can be found in parts of the region due to recent southwest winds. Windward alpine slopes may be scoured; and variable wind slabs are found at treeline and alpine elevations. New snow is likely to fail as storm slabs and/or loose avalanches.Deeper in the snowpack, an early-season rain crust and sugary facets exist. An avalanche in motion could step down to these deeper layers, creating a large and destructive avalanche. Overall snowpack depths are variable across the region. It is generally shallower in the east.
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.