An unsettled weather pattern exists through the forecast period. Expect new snow (if any) and strong wind to form isolated wind slabs in the alpine and loose wet avalanches at lower elevations with daytime warming and periods of sunshine.
Confidence
Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Wednesday
Weather Forecast
The region will see a fairly unsettled weather pattern through the forecast period. Convective spring-like conditions could bring pulses of new snow in some areas or none in others. TUESDAY NIGHT: Light snow amounts 3-10 cm at upper elevations and freezing levels 1300 m. Ridgetop winds light from the NE.WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with some sunny periods and light snow 0-5 cm. Alpine temperatures -1 and freezing levels 2200 m. Ridgetop winds 10-30 km/h from the West.THURSDAY: Cloudy with some sunny periods and a trace of snow. Alpine temperatures near -3 and freezing levels 1900 m. Ridgetop winds light from the southwest.FRIDAY: A mix of sun and cloud. Alpine temperatures near -2 and freezing levels 1900 m. Ridgetop winds light with strong SW gusts.
Avalanche Summary
No new avalanche activity reported from this region, the following is all from the neighboring Lizard Range and Flathead region: On Tuesday, numerous natural loose wet avalanches up to size 1.5 occurred mostly from sunny aspects. With spring conditions, the avalanche hazard will fluctuate greatly depending on the strength of the overnight re-freeze and how quickly the snowpack is warmed up.
Snowpack Summary
Sunday night the region picked up 5 to 10 cm of moist snow which turned to shmoo from the warmer temperatures during the day. This snow rests on a supportive crust above about 1400 m. Below 1400 m the snowpack is becoming isothermal. During the heat of the day, especially under direct sun, the snow surface becomes moist or wet almost everywhere. The exception being high elevation north facing features. Steep, north facing, alpine terrain may still hold a cold, dry, snowpack where a well settled slab rests on weak sugary snow. Although unlikely, human triggering of persistent slabs on this layer may still be possible, especially in rocky alpine terrain with a shallow or highly variable depth snowpack.
Problems
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.