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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 13th, 2024–Mar 16th, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

Regions

Waterton Lakes, Waterton.

There is a significant warm up forecast for this weekend. It's likely that this will increase the reactivity of the persistent weak layer. Smaller wet loose avalanches are likely and could also trigger this layer. Continue to make conservative terrain choices!

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

A few natural windslabs to size 1.5 were observed on Tuesday.

Snowpack Summary

Earlier in the week, 20 cm of new snow and strong SW winds formed fresh windslabs in the alpine and at treeline. The Feb 3rd crust/facet persistent weak layer is buried 60-120 cm deep. Below this, the snowpack consists of a mixture of settled snow and crust/facet layers to ground. Snowpack depths between 80 - 250 cm.

Weather Summary

Thurs

A mix of sun and cloud with light westerly winds. Freezing level rising to 2100 m, alpine high of -4°C.

Fri

Sunny, light northerly winds. Alpine high of +3°C and freezing level rising to 2800 m.

Sat

Clear skies with light northeast winds. Alpine temperatures staying above 0°C with a high of +5°C. Freezing level remains around 2800 m.

For more info: Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • The likelihood of deep persistent slab avalanches will increase with each day of warm weather.
  • In times of uncertainty conservative terrain choices are our best defense.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.