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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 12th, 2024–Mar 13th, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead, South Rockies, Akamina, Flathead, Lizard, Bull, Crowsnest North, Crowsnest South, Elkford East, Elkford West.

Stick to mellow terrain, and avoid traveling in or under large, open slopes

Wind slabs are reactive to human triggers and buried weak layers remain capable of producing very large avalanches

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

On Monday, a few natural and explosive triggered avalanches (up to size 2) were reported. Some of these avalanches failed on persistent weak layers.

Over the weekend, large persistent slab avalanches continued, triggered by riders and naturally by cornice falls onto the slope below. A fatal avalanche occurred in nearby Kananaskis Country on Sunday, where a similar snowpack structure exists.

Snowpack Summary

Around 30-40 cm of recent storm snow has fallen and been redistributed by wind into deeper deposits on north and east facing slopes. Recently formed wind slabs are not sticking well to the old surface. This is a crust on sun affected slopes, surface hoar in sheltered terrain, and wind affected snow in exposed areas.

A widespread crust with weak facets above remains a concerning layer for human triggering. Buried 80-150 cm deep, this layer has produced very large avalanche activity this week.

The snowpack below the crust is generally strong.

Weather Summary

Tuesday Night

Mostly cloudy. 5-10 cm of snow expected, with a possibility of higher localized snowfall. Light southwest ridgetop wind. Freezing level falling to 1500 m, with treeline low around -7 °C.

Wednesday

Mostly cloudy. Localised snowfall, up to 5 cm. Light southwest through northwest ridgetop wind. Freezing level rising to 1800 m, with treeline high around -2 °C.

Thursday

Mostly sunny. 0-2 cm of snow expected. Light west or northwest ridgetop wind. Freezing level at valley bottom overnight, rising to 1800 m. Treeline high around -1 °C.

Friday

Sunny. No new snow expected. Light west or northwest ridgetop wind. Freezing level at valley bottom overnight, rising to 2900 m. Treeline high around 5 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.
  • Remote triggering is a concern, watch out for adjacent and overhead slopes.
  • Cornice failures could trigger very large and destructive avalanches.
  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.