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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 14th, 2022–Mar 15th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

South Coast.

Recent storm slabs likely remain triggerable by riders on Tuesday. Tune into any signs of instability like cracking, whumphing or recent avalanches as indicators to back off into lower angle or less wind-loaded terrain.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength.

Weather Forecast

Monday night: Snowfall 15-25 cm, 40-60 km/h southwest wind, treeline temperature -1 C. Freezing level 1100 m.

Tuesday: Snowfall around 10 cm, 20-30 km/h southwest wind, treeline temperature -2 C. Freezing level 1100 m.

Wednesday: Flurries around 5 cm, 10-20 km/h southwest wind, treeline temperature -4 C. Freezing level 1000 m.

Thursday: Snowfall bringing 20-30 cm, 30-40 km/h south wind, treeline temperature -3 C. Freezing level 1100 m.

Avalanche Summary

Over the weekend, explosives and ski cuts produced loose dry and soft slab avalanches up to size 1. On Saturday a few small to medium sized storm slabs were triggered by skiers, as reported in this MIN from Sky Pilot.

Snowpack Summary

50-80 cm of heavy, moist snow appears to be bonding well to a hard melt-freeze crust that exists on all aspects up to 1500 m and to the mountain tops on sun-exposed slopes.

A few other melt-freeze crusts are found in the top 100 cm of the snowpack but appear to be progressively bonding.

The remainder of the snowpack is well-bonded.

Terrain and Travel

  • Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
  • Don't be too cavalier with decision making, storm slabs may remain sensitive to human triggering.
  • Avoid freshly wind loaded terrain features.
  • Avoid steep, unsupported slopes.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.