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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 6th, 2022–Mar 7th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Vancouver Island.

Watch for wind slabs at higher elevations where dry snow may still be lingering on shaded aspects. Periods of strong wind from the northwest may form new slabs on Monday. Where the snowpack is capped by a thick melt-freeze crust, avalanches will be unlikely. 

Confidence

Low - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations. Uncertainty is due to the speed, direction, or duration of the wind and its effect on the snowpack.

Weather Forecast

Unsettled conditions are expected on Monday as a weather system off the north coast moves southward resulting in strong winds and lower freezing levels for the region. 

Sunday Night: Mainly clear, moderate to strong NW wind, freezing levels 2000-2500 m with an inversion.

Monday: A mix of sun and cloud, strong NW wind, freezing levels dropping to around 1500 m.

Tuesday: Mainly cloudy with periods of light flurries, moderate NW wind, freezing levels around 1000 m.

Wednesday: Sunny, moderate NE wind, freezing levels around 800 m.

Avalanche Summary

This MIN post from Saturday includes evidence of small loose wet avalanches from steep slopes. 

A natural avalanche cycle had occurred during the storm between Feb 27 and March 1. 

Snowpack Summary

A widespread melt-freeze crust is now expected to be capping the snowpack. On high elevation north aspects, there may still be some dry snow but this is expected to be somewhat unlikely by Monday. In exposed terrain at higher elevations, the snow surface may be wind-affected and wind slab formation may have occurred over the weekend as a result of periods of moderate northerly winds. 

A melt-freeze crust from mid-February can be found approximately 80 cm beneath the surface. There were some observations of a poor bond to this crust last week but more recent observations suggest the crust is now well bonded to the surrounding snow. A strong, well-settled middle and lower snowpack exist below the crust.

Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.