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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 29th, 2022–Mar 30th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Columbia.

Fresh wind slabs are expected to form throughout the day. These slabs will be most reactive where they overlie a slick crust.

Loose wet avalanches are possible at lower elevations if the surface remains wet and unconsolidated.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength.

Weather Forecast

TUESDAY NIGHT: Increasing cloud cover. 20-40 km/h southwest winds. Freezing level dropping to 1000 m.

WEDNESDAY: Snowing, 5-10 cm of accumulation. 20-40 km/h west winds. Freezing level around 1600 m.

THURSDAY: Cloudy with light snowfall. 15-40 km/h west winds. Freezing level around 1500 m.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with light flurries. 20-40 km/h southwest winds. Freezing level around 1500 m.

Avalanche Summary

A widespread wet loose/slab natural avalanche cycle up to size 3 occurred on Monday on all aspects and elevations. The most activity occurred below treeline. Similar activity is not expected on Wednesday with cooling temperatures and cloud cover.

The last persistent slab avalanches observed in the region were during the warm-up on March 23rd and 24th. Several large (size 2-3) persistent slab avalanches occurred on all aspects from 2100-2300 m. This layer is expected to become dormant after being tested by significant warming followed by cooling temperatures. 

Snowpack Summary

5 to 15 cm of new snow overlies 10-20 cm of heavier snow above 2000 m. Southwest winds may form small wind slabs in lee terrain features in the alpine and treeline. A refrozen crust can be found below the new snow on all aspects below 2500m. This crust is expected to break down throughout the day at low elevations with rain and warm temperatures. Below the crust, the top 10-30 cm of the snowpack is moist.

Several other layers exist in the upper snowpack, that have shown no recent reactivity.

Terrain and Travel

  • When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.
  • Carefully evaluate steep lines for wind slabs.
  • Wind slabs may be poorly bonded to the underlying crust.
  • As surface loses cohesion due to melting, loose wet avalanches become common in steeper terrain.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.