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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 26th, 2022–Feb 27th, 2022

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

Regions

Vancouver Island.

Significative storm slabs will continue to develop throughout the day. It is a good day to make conservative choices and stick to simple, safe and non-avalanche terrain.

Confidence

High - We are confident a natural avalanche cycle will begin shortly after the arrival of the incoming weather.

Weather Forecast

The arrival of a Pacific frontal system marks the change to a wetter weather pattern.  

SATURDAY NIGHT: Snow, heavy at times, 40-60 cm, 80-100 km/h southerly wind, treeline low temperature -3 C, freezing level at 800 m.

SUNDAY: Snow, 15-30 cm, 40-60 km/h southwesterly wind, treeline high temperature -2 C, freezing level at 1000 m.

MONDAY: Snow turning to rain, 25-50 mm, 60-80 km/h southwesterly wind, treeline high temperature +4 C, freezing level at 2000 m.

TUESDAY: Snow mixed with rain, 15-30 cm, 60-80 km/h southwesterly wind, treeline high temperature +1 C, freezing level at 1300 m.

Avalanche Summary

On Friday, several natural loose wet avalanches size 1 were reported on solar aspects. 

Snowpack Summary

Storm snow is covering a variety of surfaces including the widespread mid-February crust, wind affected snow and pockets of wind slab in exposed high elevation terrain, a suncrust on solar aspects, low density facetted snow on northerly slopes and spotty surface hoar in very sheltered lower elevations. It is almost certain that all this new snow will not bond to the older surfaces.

The prominent late-January crust is now down 20-60 cm and is well bonded to the surrounding snow. The mid and lower snowpack is considered well settled and strong. Shallow snow cover at low elevations leaves many hazards like stumps and creeks exposed at or just below the snow surface.

Terrain and Travel

  • Storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase through the day.
  • As the storm slab problem gets trickier, the easy solution is to choose more conservative terrain.
  • Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy snowfall.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.