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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 16th, 2022–Feb 17th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Northwest Coastal.

15-20 cm of forecast snow and strong west winds on Wednesday night are expected to form fresh storm slabs which will be most reactive in wind affected terrain. 

Use small, low consequence slopes to test the bond of the new snow. 

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain.

Weather Forecast

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Snow; 15-20 cm (rain below ~700 m) / Strong, west wind / Low of -1 / Freezing level rising to 1000 m.

THURSDAY: Flurries; 3-5 cm / Strong, west wind / High of 1 / Freezing level 1100 m.

FRIDAY: Flurries; 3-5 cm, and another 10-15 cm overnight / Strong, southwest wind / High of 2 / Freezing level 1200 m.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with flurries; 3-5 cm / Light, west wind / High of -1 / Freezing level 700 m.

Avalanche Summary

Fresh storm slabs are expected to form at all elevations Wednesday night and will be most reactive in wind affected terrain.

 

Snowpack Summary

15-20 cm of forecast snow and strong west winds on Wednesday night is expected to form fresh storm slabs sitting on a thick rain crust at all elevations. The slabs will be most reactive in wind affected terrain.

The 10-30 cm thick rain crust makes human triggering of avalanches on weak layers deeper in the snowpack very unlikely.

However, cornices overhead are a primary concern during sunny, warm, or windy conditions. Cornice failures can trigger very large persistent slab avalanches that would otherwise be difficult to human trigger.

Terrain and Travel

  • Use increased caution at all elevations. Storm snow is forming touchy slabs.
  • Watch for changing conditions today, storm slabs may become increasingly reactive.
  • Use small low consequence slopes to test the bond of the new snow.
  • Be careful to keep storm day fever from luring you out into bigger terrain features.
  • Wind slabs may be poorly bonded to the underlying crust.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.