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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 18th, 2022–Feb 19th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Sea To Sky.

Use caution at all elevations. The new snow likely won't bond well to the variety of surfaces it will fall on.

Confidence

Moderate -

Weather Forecast

Friday night: low of -3 at 1500m. light flurries bringing trace amounts of snow and moderate west winds. 

Saturday: stormy with 10 to 20cm of snow and moderate west winds. High of -2 at 1500m.

Sunday: a mix of sun and clouds with light flurries bringing trace amounts of snow. Light northerly winds and a high of -3 at 1500m.

Monday: mostly sunny with a high of -8 at 1500m. Light north winds.

Avalanche Summary

On Thursday a natural icefall triggered a size 2.5 avalanche on the slope below. This avalanche was on a northeast aspect at 2100m.

On Wednesday one size one natural cornice fall was observed on a east aspect at 2200m. It was in extreme terrain and did not pull a slab on the slope below.

Snowpack Summary

New snow and westerly winds will likely form wind and storm slabs Throughout the day on Saturday.

The mid February crust is down around 10cm. This melt-freeze crust is reported to exist on all aspects and elevations except for some of the highest elevation polar aspects. Facets have been observed above the crust on polar aspects.

The late-January crust/facet/surface hoar interface is buried down 30-70 cm. This layer was most reactive between 1700 m and 2000 m. While this layer now appears to be dormant in many parts of the region, recent snowpack tests suggest it is still very reactive in a few places and would still be capable of producing large avalanches if triggered. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for fresh storm slabs building throughout the day.
  • Closely monitor how the new snow is bonding to the crust.
  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of buried persistent weak layers.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.