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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 29th, 2024–Jan 30th, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Blue River, Clearwater, McBride, Premier, Clemina, Esplanade, North Monashee, North Selkirk.

Continue to choose conservative terrain.

We have some uncertainty in how quickly the snowpack will gain strength.

Confidence

Low

Avalanche Summary

Over the past few days natural and human triggered avalanches up to size 3.5 have been reported in the region. Avalanche types include wet slabs, persistent slabs, storm slabs and wet loose. Avalanches have been observed on all aspects and elevations.

Snowpack Summary

Light snowfall continues to accumulate in the alpine and be redistributed by southerly winds. Elevated freezing levels and rain have moistened the surface at treeline and below.

Beneath lies a complex snowpack containing several layers of concern that continue to produce avalanche activity:

·         Facets formed during the mid January cold snap sit 30 to 60 cm deep.

·         A surface hoar/facet/crust layer formed in early January sits 60-80 cm deep.

·         Another surface hoar layer that was buried in early December is now over 1 m deep and remains a concern above 2000 m in shallow snowpack areas.

The lower snowpack is characterized by weak basal facets in many areas. Avalanches on this layer have been large and destructive

Weather Summary

Monday Night

Cloudy with up to 5 mm of rain expected, southwest alpine wind 40 to 70 km/h, freezing level around 2500 to 3000 m.

Tuesday

A mix of sun and cloud with 3 mm of rain expected, south alpine wind 40 to 60 km/h, freezing level falling to 1800 m.

Wednesday

A mix of sun and cloud with light rain possible, south alpine wind 40 to 60 km/h, freezing level around 2400 m.

Thursday

Mostly cloudy with 5 to 10 mm of rain expected, south alpine wind 20 to 40 km/h, freezing level rising to 2300 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Make conservative terrain choices and avoid overhead hazard.
  • Be aware of the potential for large, destructive avalanches due to the presence of deeply buried weak layers.
  • Avoid steep, rocky, and wind effected areas where triggering slabs is more likely.
  • As surface loses cohesion due to melting, loose wet avalanches become common in steeper terrain.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.