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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 1st, 2024–Feb 2nd, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Glacier.

The good news? Well, the temps are finally dropping so any new precipitation over the weekend will be snow.

The bad news? There will be an extremely thick, surface crust which will render backcountry travel difficult and grim.

The crummy news? Backcountry travel is already grim with heavy, wet slop dominating surface conditions.

Confidence

High

Avalanche Summary

A large natural avalanche cycle was observed on all aspects and elevations lasting from Sunday through Tuesday, with many avalanches running full path and gouging deeply in confined gullies. Recent avalanche control within and adjacent to the park produced numerous large avalanches up to size 3.5, some showing wide propagation.

A remote trigger adjacent to the west end of Glacier NP resulted in a sz 3.5 running from the Alpine to valley bottom.

Snowpack Summary

The recent warm weather and rain has left the upper snowpack wet and weak, making for difficult and hazardous travel at all elevations/aspects.

A sun crust (Jan 3), down 60-80cm, can be found at and below Tree-line on S-SW aspects. Wet surface avalanches have been stepping down to this layer and deeper within confined gullies.

The Dec 1 surface hoar layer, down ~120cm, is decomposing.

Weather Summary

Temps are dropping through Friday and the weekend. Minor amounts of snow(!) may arrive Sat.

Tonight: Clearing, Alp low -1°C, light winds, freezing level (FZL) 1800m.

Fri: Cloudy with isolated flurries, Alp high -1°C, FZL 1800m.

Sat: Cloudy with scattered flurries, 5cm, Alp high -4°C, FZL 1500m.

Sun: Cloud/sun, Alp high -4°C, FZL 1400m.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • A crust on the surface will help bind the snow together, but may make for tough travel conditions.

Problems

Wet Slabs

Wet Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) that is generally moist or wet when the flow of liquid water weakens the bond between the slab and the surface below (snow or ground). They often occur during prolonged warming events and/or rain-on-snow events. Wet Slabs can be very unpredictable and destructive.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.