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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 16th, 2024–Jan 17th, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Glacier.

A change in the weather pattern means the deep freeze is ending! Storms will bring snow and wind to Roger's Pass, creating a fresh stormslab.

The temperatures are still forecast to be chilly, ensure you have emergency clothing layers and a good time buffer to be back at the car before dark

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Natural activity during the cold snap has been limited to loose/dry and wind slabs in Rogers Pass.

Yesterday there was a skier triggered avalanche on Cheops on a steep west aspect. This was a windslab on top of a crust and ran for approximately 200m.

Bruins Ridge saw a sz 2 wind slab fail on a SW aspect, most likely on the underlying suncrust.

Several thin sz 1-2 hard slabs were observed on Christiana Ridge and Fidelity Mtn.

*All noted avalanches failed on a suncrust.

Snowpack Summary

Moderate winds (S/SW switching to N/NE) have redistributed 40-50cms of snow into variable soft to hard surface slabs. These sit upon a sun crust on solar aspects, firm wind effect in the alpine, and soft facetted snow on sheltered N aspects.

Below 2100m there is a crust down 70-80cm (from Dec 5th/6th).

The Dec 1 surface hoar layer is down 90-120cm and is decomposing. However, it is still reactive in isolated snowpack tests.

Weather Summary

The Arctic air will be pushed out by a series of storms. We'll see modest snowfall amounts but thankfully temperatures will warm up abit!

Tonight: flurries amounting to 4cm, Alp low -15°C, light south winds.

Wed: Flurries (6 cm), Alp high -15°C, light E wind.

Thurs: mix of sun/cloud/flurries, trace snow, Alp high -13°C, wind: SE 20km/hr.

Friday: Flurries(9cms), trace amount of snow, Alp high -7°C, light ridge wind.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Watch for areas of hard wind slab on alpine features.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.