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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 29th, 2024–Feb 1st, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Waterton Lakes, Waterton.

The snowpack is warm and moist and will not get a good re-freeze during the forecast period. Travel may be difficult and the likelihood of triggering a persistent slab avalanche has increased. If you choose to go out be cautious in all avalanche terrain, especially on steep slopes.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Numerous avalanches were observed from this week's warming including wet loose, persistent slab, and deep persistent slab avalanches to size 2.

Snowpack Summary

In the alpine, moist snow sits on the surface and may be moist down to weaker layers below. Treeline and below, moist to wet snow exists down to weak layers and even ground in thin areas. The Dec 23 melt freeze crust and facets are down 30-80 cm. An early season basal crust complex exists in most places in the alpine and at treeline. Significantly less snow in the eastern areas of the park, rapidly diminishing in the heat. Snowpack depths between 30 - 150 cm.

Weather Summary

Tues

Mix of sun and cloud. Alpine high of 3, freezing level above ridgetop. Wind SW 70 kph becoming 40. No precipitation.

Wed

Mainly sunny. Alpine high of 5. Freezing level above ridgetop. Wind SW 40-50 kph. No precipitation.

Thurs

Freezing level above ridgetop with alpine high of 4. Wind strong SW. No precipitation.

For more info see: Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.
  • Choose gentle slopes without steep terrain above.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.