Conflicting weather forecasts are keeping us on the edge of our forecasting seats. Read the entire bulletin carefully. If we are blessed with a heavy snowfall in the next 2 days, expect a widespread avalanche cycle. The ratings & discussions in this bulletin reflect a 10-15cm snowfall.
On solar aspects this slab most likely is starting to sit on top of buried sun crusts on S-W aspects. On polar aspects the interface is facets and surface hoar.
Obviously this is new snow dependent. Any new snow will sit on a crust and likely sluff off. These sluffs may trigger slabs.
This layer will not tolerate sudden loading. If by some miracle we do get 20-30cm expect an avalanche cycle that will likely involve this layer.
No new avalanches observed or reported over the past 24hrs.
Crusts. We are seeing sun crusts and temperature crusts slowly creep onto all aspects and elevations. True north is hanging in there, but most other areas are showing signs of spring. Keep in mind these crusts are superficial at this point and don't signal a spring snowpack or any true increase in stability. A thin crust isn't enough to bridge the weaker layers just yet. If we do get a decent amount of snow tomorrow expect a poor bond with the existing crusts. A cold night and cloudy skies will almost guarantee the new snow will rest on a smooth, well frozen crust. Aside from that we still have windslabs up to 40cm that are active on north aspects and the Rockies' hallmark deep persistent weak layer to worry about.
Place your bets! It looks like we will get some snow tomorrow but the jury is out on how much. Some forecasts say up to 20cm by tomorrow night and others say 3cm. This a huge difference and will effect the hazard very differently. Winds will decrease through the day and settle to light winds by early afternoon. Even ridge winds will be light. Temperatures will be steady around -8. Interestingly, some forecasts are calling for potential lightening mid afternoon!
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
