Avalanche danger could be increased in southern parts of the region. Use extra caution if it is snowing or blowing heavily.
Confidence
Fair - Track of incoming weather is uncertain
Weather Forecast
Monday: Strong winds changing from S to NW. Alpine temp -7. 10-20 cm snow. Snowfall will be more intense in the south than in the north of the region. Tuesday: Moderate NW winds. Alpine temp -12. No snow. Wednesday: Light SE winds. Alpine temp -14. Light snow.
Avalanche Summary
Recent reports include numerous natural and skier triggered soft slab and loose snow avalanches up to size 1.5. On Friday, a size 2.5 avalanche failed on a steep northerly aspect in the alpine, possibly failing on a persistent weakness.
Snowpack Summary
Up to 50 cm of low density new snow has formed wind slabs in exposed lee and cross-loaded terrain in the alpine and at treeline. In areas sheltered from the wind, the new snow is sluffing fast and far. Older wind slabs are also buried on northerly aspects in the alpine. Overall, the upper snowpack is reported to be settling well. The late November surface hoar, down 100-140 cm (between 1500 and 2000 m), is producing moderate to no results in snowpack tests, with isolated sudden results. The early November crust, down 150-230 cm, has produced occasional sudden results in snowpack tests. Professionals are still cautious about these lingering persistent slab problems, but the likelihood of triggering continues to decrease as the overlying snowpack builds and continues to gain strength. Be wary of steep complex terrain with a shallow snowpack, where triggering a persistent weakness is more likely.
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.