Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 25th, 2023–Jan 26th, 2023

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Vancouver Island, East Island, North Island, South Island, West Island.

Recent warm weather has transformed our snow back into a typical coastal snowpack.

Take extra caution on steep slopes when they are in full sun.

Confidence

High

Avalanche Summary

On Tuesday, a loose wet avalanche cycle occurred up to size 1.5 at treeline and below treeline as a result of the rain.

With this warming event, remember that even a small loose wet avalanche can push a rider into or over a terrain trap, such as a cliff or gully feature.

Snowpack Summary

A surface crust caps the snowpack, ranging from 3 cm below treeline to 1 cm in the alpine. The sun and heat will likely disintegrate this crust, but there is a chance of it being preserved on north aspects in the alpine.

The upper snowpack consists of 10-30 cm of rapidly settling and increasingly moist snow. This sits on a pronounced melt-freeze crust below 1500 m. Above 1500 m this melt-freeze crust begins to lose strength and is 1 cm thick or less.

The mid and lower snowpack remain moist and are generally well-settled and dense.

Weather Summary

Wednesday Night

Partly cloudy. No new precipitation. Northwesterly winds 50 km/h. Treeline temperature 5 °C. Freezing level 2700 m.

Thursday

Increasing cloudiness. Trace precipitation late in the day. Northwesterly winds building through the day, 40-60 km/h. Treeline temperature 5 °C. Freezing level falling through the day 2500 to 1500 m

Friday

Mainly sunny. Trace precipitation. Northwesterly winds, 50-70 km/h. Treeline temperature 0 °C. Freezing level 1500 m.

Saturday

Sunny. No new precipitation. Northeasterly winds, 40 km/h. Treeline temperature -2 °C. Freezing level 700 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

Avoid steep slopes when air temperatures are warm, or solar radiation is strong.
The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.