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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 31st, 2023–Feb 1st, 2023

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Kakwa, Pine Pass, Tumbler.

New storm snow accompanied by moderate southwest winds will likely build fresh and reactive storm slabs through the forecast period. A small avalanche could step down to deeper weak layers.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were observed on Monday. Many wind slab avalanches were triggered by riders and naturally last Saturday. They occurred on all aspects.

Looking forward, riders may trigger storm and wind slab avalanches in wind-exposed terrain as we receive new snow and strong wind throught he forecast period. Smaller avalanches could step down to the facets near the base of the snowpack, producing very large avalanches. See more on the potential of triggering deeper weak layers Forecasters' Blog.

The AvCan APP is LIVE! Please continue to send in your observations through the MIN.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 20 cm of fresh low-density snow may form new wind slabs in lee terrain features in wind-exposed terrain. The snow will rest on previously wind-affected snow. A melt-freeze crust is found near the snow surface on sun-exposed slopes and everywhere below 1600 m.

Several crust/facet/surface hoar layers exist in the upper and middle portions of the snowpack. Recent observations suggest these layers are not as concerning as in neighbouring regions.

The most concerning layer is at the base of the snowpack from large and weak facets formed in November. This layer is widespread and most likely problematic in steep, rocky alpine terrain.

Weather Summary

Tuesday Night

Cloudy new snow 10- 15 cm. Strong northwest wind at the ridgetop. Treeline temperatures steady -12 °C.

Wednesday

Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 10-20 cm with local enhancements expected. Ridgetop wind moderate from the West and treeline temperature -12 °C.

Thursday

Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 10 to 20 cm. Ridgetop wind light to moderate from the southwest. Treeline temperature -10 °C.

Friday

Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 5 to 20 cm. Ridgetop wind moderate from the southwest and treeline temperatures warming to -5 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase through the day.
  • Avoid thin areas like rock outcroppings where you're most likely to trigger avalanches failing on deep weak layers.
  • If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
  • Uncertainty is best managed through conservative terrain choices at this time.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.