The green brick is over and Saturday was the tipping point. After long periods of Low danger, even small amounts of new snow can combine with wind & warm temperatures to produce avalanches. It's crucial to verify the avalanche forecast by comparing what you read with what you actually observe in the mountains, and adjust accordingly.
Storm slabs have formed and are sitting over hard surfaces and/or surface hoar in many places. This problem will most likely become a Persistent Slab Problem within a few days as we watch it develop. This is a developing problem that could catch users off guard, especially in areas with wind effect.
No new avalanches reported on Sunday, but...
The MIN lit up late Saturday evening as people returned from their trips and reported multiple avalanche involvements up to size 2, all running 10-25 cm deep on the surface hoar/crust layer.
Mt Field, Boom Lake, Mt Whymper and the Tophat area all saw action.
10-20 cm of snow from late last week now covers up and bonds poorly to the Jan 24 weak layer. This layer is becoming a Problem as an overlying slab develops from the new snow, wind and warm temperatures. This is the perfect recipe for avalanches, and expect them to be very sensitive, given the nature of the underlying surface hoar and crust.
Warm and windy. A westerly flow will continue to push warm air over the region this week, initially with some light precipitation, then drying out and warming up even further by midweek. Expect a few cm of snow by Monday (up to 5 cm on the Wapta), and then watch the freezing levels rise each day, reaching 3000 m on Friday. The winds are expected to remain in the moderate-to-strong range for most of the week.
