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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 28th, 2026–Jan 29th, 2026

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Northwest Coastal, Boundary, Kitimat, Rupert, Shames, Stewart.

Up to 1700 m freezing levels after another forecast 20 - 30 cm should push us past the tipping point for a natural avalanche cycle. Time to back off from avalanche terrain.

Confidence

Moderate

  • We are confident the likelihood of avalanches will increase with the forecast weather.
  • We are uncertain about forecast snowfall amounts.

Avalanche Summary

Only a few small wind slabs and loose dry avalanches from steep terrain have been observed in the storm so far (some from ski cutting), but new snow is piling up and hazard is on a steep rise.

Successive rounds of snowfall (even a bit of rain) and wind should maintain dangerous avalanche conditions through the forecast period.

Snowpack Summary

Another 20 to 30 cm of new snow should accumulate by Thursday Morning, bringing new snow totals to about 60 - 70 cm, with strong south winds accompanying it all.

The new snow is beginning to reach a critical load above a grab-bag of drought surfaces. Heavy wind effect and supportive crust predominate, but these may be paired with faceted grains or large, weak surface hoar in sheltered areas--a bad combo.

The January 3rd surface hoar is still a layer of note, found 100 to 250 cm deep. It hasn't produced avalanches recently and ought to be locked under the crust in many areas.

Treeline snow depths throughout the region range from 250 to 450 cm.

Weather Summary

Wednesday Night
Cloudy with snow showers bringing 20 to 30 cm of new snow. 40 to 50 km/h south ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -2 °C. Freezing level 800 m.

Thursday
Mostly cloudy with continuing light flurries bringing about 5 cm of snow, increasing again overnight. 30 to 40 km/h south ridgetop wind, easing. Treeline temperature reaching 1 °C as freezing level climbs to 1700 m.

Friday
Cloudy with easing snowfall bringing 25 to 40 cm of new snow, including overnight amounts, with rain below about 1300 m. 60 to 70 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 0 °C to 1 °C with freezing level reaching 1400 - 1500 m.

Saturday
A mix of sun and clouds after overnight flurries finish with up to 5 cm of new snow. 30 to 40 km/h southeast ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -2 °C. Freezing level 1000 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Make conservative terrain choices and avoid overhead hazard.
  • Don't let storm day fever lure you into consequential terrain.
  • A moist or wet snow surface, pinwheeling, and natural avalanches are all indicators of a weakening snowpack.
  • Keep in mind that the high density of wet avalanches can make them destructive.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.