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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 8th, 2022–Jan 9th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Coast Inland.

Freezing level rising and temperature warming will increase the avalanche danger thoughout the day. Large cornices may become weak and easy to trigger.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how the snowpack will react to the forecast weather.

Weather Forecast

The freezing levels will rise significantly to over 2000 metres on Sunday but with no precipitation forecast.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with scattered flurries, accumulation 1 to 3 cm, 30-50 km/h southwest wind, alpine temperature -10 C with freezing level at 500 m.

SUNDAY: A mix of sun and cloud, no precipitation, 30-40 km/h southwest wind, alpine temperature 0 C with freezing level rising to 2100 m.

MONDAY: Cloudy with sunny periods, no precipitation, 20-40 km/h southwest wind, alpine temperature -3 C with freezing level at 1500 m.

TUESDAY: Snow and rain mixed, accumulation 10 to 20 cm, 40-60 km/h southwest wind, alpine temperature 0 C with freezing level at 1800 m.

Avalanche Summary

A few natural avalanches were observed over the last few days, including a wind slab at higher elevation triggered by a cornice fall, as well as an avalanche below treeline near valley bottom (see here for details). Loose wet avalanche activity was observed at lower elevations in the south of the region on Friday, likely from Thursday night's warm-up.

Snowpack Summary

The last few days snowfall (15-35 cm) were associated with strong southwest wind, which likely formed new wind slabs in lee terrain features. This recent precipitation adds to the 50+ cm of snow that has fallen since January 1, which may overly sugary faceted grains that formed during the cold spell in late December.

Around 80 to 200 cm deep, a weak layer of faceted grains may be found above a melt-freeze crust that formed in early December. The layer is most prominent between 1700 and 2100 m. The last observed avalanche on this layer was around December 24, suggesting that this layer has become dormant. The most likely place to trigger it would be in thin, rocky snowpack areas.

The lower snowpack is well-settled and strong.

Terrain and Travel

  • Cornices become weak with daytime heating.
  • Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.
  • Cornice failures could trigger very large and destructive avalanches.
  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Problems

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.