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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 2nd, 2022–Jan 3rd, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Cariboos.

New snow and wind will form touchy storm slabs at all elevations. Monitor conditions throughout the day, hazard will increase as snowfall continues. Keep terrain selection conservative until the storm snow has stabilized.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the speed, direction, or duration of the wind and its effect on the snowpack.

Weather Forecast

Scattered snowfall continues as the front exits the interior. Cold arctic air keeps conditions cold and partly clear this week.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Strong southwest winds continue with up to 5cm expected overnight. 

MONDAY: Up to 15cm of low density snow, tapering off in the afternoon. Alpine high of -12 with winds backing off to light southerlies. Greatest accumulations are expected in the South and East of the Cariboos. 

TUESDAY: Chance of flurries with light southeast winds. Alpine high of -15. 

WEDNESDAY: Clearing skies with light southwest winds. Alpine high of -15. 

Avalanche Summary

Loose dry natural avalanches to size 1.5 have been observed this week, caused by the continued cold and clear weather creating a weak interface at the surface. Expect this interface to create a poor bond between the old and new snow as snow accumulates.

A persistent slab avalanche was observed in the region on Wednesday. It is believed to have released naturally within the last few days. It initiated around 2200 m on a steep northwest aspect. Limited information is not available due to poor visibility.

We'd appreciate if you submit your observations to the Mountain Information Network, even just a photo.

Snowpack Summary

Storm snow with strong south-southwest winds continue to form new slabs with deeper deposits on north and east facing slopes. This load will be deposited on weak and wind effected surfaces - expect a poor bond and reactive conditions. 

Another weak layer of feathery surface hoar may be found around 20 to 50 cm deep. It is most likely found in sheltered terrain features in the lower alpine and treeline, or open features below treeline (such as cut blocks). Although we haven't received reports of this layer being a concern, it has been noted in neighbouring regions.

The early December crust sits 60-100cm deep in the snowpack up to 2000m, with a layer of weak and faceted crystals above. This layer of loose and sugary snow is causing large destructive avalanches in other regions. This layer is spatially variable in the Cariboos and may only be a problem in select parts of the region. Read more about it here. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Storm snow and wind is forming touchy slabs. Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline.
  • Be alert to conditions that change with elevation and wind exposure.
  • Approach steep open slopes at and below treeline cautiously, buried surface hoar may exist.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.