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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 3rd, 2022–Feb 4th, 2022

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Below Threshold.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Below Threshold.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Below Threshold.

Regions

Yukon.

Avalanche danger will increase as the wind picks up. We have uncertainty around the timing of the wind, but once it starts to blow, deep and reactive wind slabs are likely to trigger naturally as they form. 

Confidence

Low - Uncertainty is due to the speed, direction, or duration of the wind and its effect on the snowpack.

Weather Forecast

Thursday night: 5-10 cm of low density snow with moderate SW wind. Alpine temperatures near -15.

Friday: Continued snow flurries 5-10 cm. SW wind building to strong. Alpine temperature near -15. 

Saturday: Continued snow flurries 5-10 cm. Strong SW wind. Alpine temperature warming to -5.

Sunday: Continued snow flurries 5-10 cm. Strong SW wind. Alpine temperature near -5.

Avalanche Summary

On Wednesday numerous size 1 dry loose and soft slabs ran naturally and were easily reactive to skier triggering. On the Alaska side, strong outflow winds made for touchy avalanche conditions, with natural releases running to the road. We are expecting similar conditions in White Pass as the wind picks up.

Snowpack Summary

Flurries continue to accumulate over 45 cm of low-density snow from Wednesday. As the wind picks up on Friday, all that new snow will likely be transported into wind slabs in lee terrain features. These fresh slabs will likely be reactive due to a poor bond to underlying surfaces including surface hoar on sheltered northerly aspects and hard slab in wind-affected areas.

In shallow snowpack areas a layer of loose facets sits at the bottom of the snowpack.

Terrain and Travel

  • Pay attention to the wind, once it starts to blow fresh sensitive wind slabs are likely to form.
  • Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of strong wind.
  • Wind slabs are most reactive during their formation.
  • Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, avalanches may run surprisingly far.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.