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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 8th, 2022–Feb 9th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Cariboos.

Rapid warming as well as rain at lower elevations and snow up high will increase the likelihood of triggering the buried weak layer where it is present and destabilize the snowpack below treeline.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how the snowpack will react to the forecast weather. Uncertainty is due to the fact that persistent slabs are particularly difficult to forecast.

Weather Forecast

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy, 5 to 10 cm new snow and rain at lower elevations, light to moderate west wind, alpine temperature -3 C, freezing level 1400 m.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy, 5 to 10 cm new snow, light to moderate southwest wind, alpine temperature +1 C, freezing level rising rapidly to 2400 m. 

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny, up to 3 cm new snow, light to moderate west wind, alpine temperature 0 C, freezing level dropping to 1500 m.

FRIDAY: Sunny, light northwest wind, alpine temperature -5 C, freezing level 1300 m.

Avalanche Summary

On Monday, wet loose avalanches below 1000 m were observed. Observations were limited due to visibility.

On Sunday, two natural large avalanches of size 2-2.5 were observed in steep terrain on north and east aspects in the alpine. Several large avalanches released on sun exposed steep slopes. Riders triggered a large size 3 avalanche in the south of the region.

On Saturday, several storm and wind slab avalanches up to size 2.5 were observed at treeline and in the alpine. Most released naturally, and a couple were likely triggered by riders. Skiers triggered a large avalanche remotely in the south of the region (see this MIN report for details - thank you for the report).

Snowpack Summary

The recent storm brought around 30 to 50 cm of snow. The snow formed wind slabs in lee terrain features from strong southwest wind and storm slabs in wind sheltered areas.

The snow will be particularly touchy where it loaded a weak layer of surface hoar crystals. This layer is likely anywhere from 50 to 100 cm deep. Reports suggest that the surface hoar is most prominent in sheltered openings at and below treeline but could extend into wind-sheltered terrain in the alpine. Example terrain features to treat as suspect include the lee side of protected ridges, openings in the trees, cut blocks, and burns. On south aspects, a melt-freeze crust may exist instead of surface hoar.

The lower snowpack is generally strong and well-bonded.

Terrain and Travel

  • Extra caution for areas experiencing rapidly warming temperatures for the first time.
  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.
  • Watch for signs of instability like whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.
  • Uncertainty is best managed through conservative terrain choices at this time.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.