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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 27th, 2025–Feb 28th, 2025

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

Freezing level is forecast to ramp up over the next few days. Warm temperatures and direct sun will make the avalanche problems more reactive.

Limit exposure to overhead hazards and make conservative terrain choices!

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Just outside the park, explosive avalanche control produced avalanches up to size 3.5 avalanche on Wednesday with notably wide propagation.

On Tuesday Connaught Creek was busy, with reports of people remote-triggering avalanches to sz 2 on Video Pk, 8812 Bowl, Dispatcher Bowl, and Balu Pass shoulder.

Low elevation areas (below 1300m) have significant pinwheeling on the surface. Steep solar slopes are releasing moist/loose avalanches to sz 2 with direct sun.

Snowpack Summary

40cm of heavy storm snow sits on a faceted upper snowpack. Strong to extreme SW winds created windslabs at Alpine and Tree-line elevations.

A weak layer of surface hoar, facets and/or suncrust (Jan 30th) is 50-80cm down. This layer is easy to pick out in the snowpack and is reactive to human loads.

Low elevation zones with a thin snowpack should be treated with caution. The cold, weak facets at the base have undergone rapid change and are now nearly isothermal.

Weather Summary

Feels like spring! Scattered sun and cloud with warm temps are forecast as a weak ridge of high pressure sets up.

Tonight Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries. Alp low -4°C. Ridge winds west 15-35km/hr. FZL 1100m

Fri Mix sun/cloud. Alp high -3°C. Light wind. FZL 1800m

Sat Mix of sun/cloud. Alp high +2°C. Light wind. FZL 1900m with a temperature inversion.

Sun Cloudy. Alp high 1°C. Ridge wind light. FZL 1700m.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avoid steep, sun-exposed slopes when the air temperature is warm or when solar radiation is strong.
  • Keep in mind that human triggering may persist as natural avalanches taper off.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.