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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 3rd, 2025–Mar 4th, 2025

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Purcells, Esplanade, Dogtooth, East Purcell, St. Mary, West Purcell.

Recent avalanche activity indicates the persistent weak layer remains triggerable.

Be especially cautious on high northerly slopes, and on sunny slopes during warming.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Sun: A few persistent and loose wet releases size 1-2, with both human and natural triggers occurred.

Sat: Many natural, remote, and explosives-triggered slabs failed on the late-Jan layer, fitting a pattern of recent persistent activity, generally from size 2-3 at upper elevations.

Fri: A skier was caught in a size 1.5 and partially buried.

Wed: Size 2 - 3 deep persistent slabs were explosive-triggered, showing the basal snowpack reacting to large triggers.

Snowpack Summary

A trace to 10 cm of new snow from Monday has buried a melt-freeze crust which previously made up the surface on solar aspects and on all aspects below 1800 m. Wind-affected but dry snow still remains on high northerly slopes. A couple of weak layers consisting of a crust, facets or surface hoar from February and January remain a concern, buried 30 to 60 cm. Additionally, a layer of facets from early December is buried 70 to 120 cm. In many areas, facets or depth hoar exist at the base of the snowpack. These layers, particularly the late-January layer, remain a primary concern at upper elevations where strong surface crusts are absent.

Weather Summary

Monday Night

Partly cloudy with 0 to 5 cm of snow. 5 to 10 km/h variable ridgetop wind. Freezing level 1600 m dropping to valley bottom. Treeline temperature dropping to -7 °C.

Tuesday

A mix of sun and cloud. 5 to 10 km/h variable ridgetop wind. Freezing level rising to 1600 m. Treeline temperature around -4 °C.

Wednesday

Mainly cloudy with 2 to 10 cm of snow. 5 to 10 km/h west ridgetop wind. Freezing level rising to 1600 m, treeline temperature around -4 °C.

Thursday

Mostly sunny. 5 to 10 km/h north ridgetop wind. Freezing level rising to 1700 m. Treeline temperature around -3 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Be aware of the potential for large, destructive avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.
  • Avalanche activity is unlikely when a thick melt-freeze crust is present on the snow surface.
  • Avoid steep, rocky, and wind-affected areas where triggering slabs is more likely.
  • Keep in mind that human triggering may persist as natural avalanches taper off.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.