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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 24th, 2025–Feb 25th, 2025

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead, Flathead, Lizard.

Avalanche conditions remain dangerous.

Stick to low angle, conservative terrain without overhead hazard.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

On Sunday, widespread avalanche activity was observed, naturally and human triggered to size 3. Avalanches were observed within the storm snow and on both buried persistent weak layers.

We expect natural activity to taper off, but human triggering will remain likely.

Snowpack Summary

Storm totals are expected to reach 60 cm by Tuesday afternoon in the Lizard Range, and around 40 cm in the Flathead. West/southwest winds have redistributed this snow into deeper deposits at treeline and above. Below 1500 m precipitation mostly fell as rain.

A persistent weak layer of surface hoar or facets from late January is buried 70 to 100 cm deep. This layer is expected to be more reactive with the warming temperatures and new snow/ rain. The mid and lower snowpack is generally well settled.

Check out this MIN for an overview of conditions around Tunnel Creek.

Weather Summary

Monday Night

Cloudy with 10 to 15 cm of snow expected, favoring the Lizard Range. Southwest ridgetop wind 30 to 40 km/h at ridgetop. Freezing levels around 1500 m.

Tuesday

Cloudy with 10 to 15 cm of snow, again favoring the Lizard Range. 30 to 40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -3 °C. Freezing level rising to 1500 m.

Wednesday

Clear skies with 20 to 30 km/h west ridgetop wind. Freezing levels rise to 1700 m, with treeline temperatures around -2 °C.

Thursday

Clear skies with increasing afternoon cloud and wind. 20 to 40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Freezing levels rise to 1800 m, with treeline temperatures around -2 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avoid avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.
  • Avoid the runout zones of avalanche paths. Avalanches could run full path.
  • Fresh snow rests on a problematic persistent slab, don't let good riding lure you into complacency.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.