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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 14th, 2023–Jan 15th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Vancouver Island, East Island, North Island, South Island, West Island.

The snowpack is in a period of transition. Make constant observations of the surface under and around you. Travel with caution where there is a surface crust. Where the snow is wet, avoid snow that pinwheels or snowballs down the slope, or looks and feels like a slurpee.

Confidence

Low

Avalanche Summary

On Friday and Saturday, numerous, small, skier triggered wet loose avalanches were reported in steep terrain around treeline.

Snowpack Summary

Most rideable terrain has been soaked by rain during the recent storm. Watch for a new crust to form on the surface as the temperature drops the next few days. Where dry snow remains, at very high elevations, there may be deep, reactive windslabs leftover from the strong to extreme south winds during the storm. In transitional elevations between dry and wet/freezing snow, moderate southeast winds overnight and Sunday morning may form thin reactive windslabs over the new crust.

A crust that was 90-130cm below the surface of the snowpack had been highlighted as a critical avalanche layer in recent snowpack tests, but no avalanches have been reported on this layer, and we expect the recent rain and forecasted temperature drop to eliminate our concern about this layer.

Snowpack depths at treeline are around 120 cm, tapering quickly with elevation. Although the snowpack in most forested areas below treeline remains below threshold depths for avalanches, many steep bluffs, cutbanks, and alpine features in the upper below treeline band are capable of producing avalanches.

Weather Summary

Saturday Night

Partly cloudy. No new precipitation expected. Moderate southeast wind. Freezing level rising to 1800 m.

Sunday

Cloudy. 0-5 cm of snow expected, up to 10 cm around Mt. Washington. Snow/rain line around 1000 m. Moderate southeast wind trending to light through the day.

Monday

Cloudy. 2-8 mm of precipitation, snow around Mt. Cain, rain on the southern end of the region. Light southwest wind, increasing to moderate through the day. Snow/rain line around 900 m.

Tuesday

Possible clear periods overnight. Mostly cloudy through the day. 0-3 cm of snow expected. Moderate rain in the south end of the region. Light south winds becoming strong through the day. Freezing around 1000m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.
  • When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.
  • Loose avalanches may start small but they can grow and push you into dangerous terrain.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.