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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 16th, 2022–Dec 17th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Glacier.

Light amounts of new snow and cool temps will freshen up the snow surface in the park.

Avalanche can still happen at Mod/Low danger ratings, make conservative travel choices and pay attention to signs of instability.

Have a look at a blog from the Avalanche Canada forecasters on how to manage a persistent slab problem in the backcountry.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Isolated natural sluffs and small avalanches up to size 1.5 have been observed over the past few days along the highway corridor.

A skier triggered a sz 1.5 near the Dome col on Monday.

More reports came in about unsupported pockets of soft slab failing on Dec 5 and Nov 17, mainly occurring around treeline and morainal features. Most avalanches were small (sz 1 or less), but still large enough to bury a person in a terrain trap.

Scary persistent slab incident in the RMR backcountry from Monday; see MIN report.

Snowpack Summary

In general the snowpack is faceting with continued cool conditions, this combined with a below average snowpack is making for an unusually weak Selkirk snowpack with lots of BTL terrain roughness (ie. alders, rocks, trees, creeks).

Up to 5 cm of fresh snow overnight covered a variety of surfaces. These include sun crust on steep, solar aspects TL and Alp, and surface hoar up to 5mm BTL and TL.

Settled HST over the Dec 5 persistent weak layer in down 30-40 cm. It consists of surface hoar, preserved stellars, facets, and a thin sun crust on steeper solar aspects.

The Nov 17th Surface Hoar is now buried 60-90cm and continues to produce sudden results in snowpack tests.

Weather Summary

A cold front over the region on Saturday will bring periods of light snow. In behind this cold front is, you guessed it, cold arctic air. Brrrr, stay warm out there.

Saturday: Flurries, 2 cm, Alp High -12*C, Ridge wind NE 10-25km/h

Sunday: Scattered flurries, 4 cm, Alp High -23*C, Ridge wind E 15 km/h

Monday: Mix of sun and cloud, Alp High -26*C, Ridge wind E 10 km.h

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Uncertainty is best managed through conservative terrain choices at this time.
  • Watch for signs of instability like whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.
  • Exercise caution on steep, unsupported slopes.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.