Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 15th, 2022–Dec 16th, 2022

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Kananaskis, Bow Valley, Highwood Pass, North 40, Spray - KLakes.

The snowpack this year is still generally weak and will not improve anytime soon. Travel in the backcountry is challenging going up or down.

Confidence

High

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches reported.

Snowpack Summary

Right now we basically have 3 layers of concern. The upper half ranges from low density snow below tree line to reasonably stiff wind slabs at tree line and above. The trouble starts with a thin layer that sits almost exactly at the mid pack line. It seems to be a different layer type from area to area, but it is consistently bad. Whether it's surface hoar or facets doesn't really matter. Regardless of the grain, its a touchy layer that is reliably failing with little to no load. The bottom half of the snowpack is a thick layer of facets which also spells trouble. Nobody is really skiing out there because the travel is not great going up or down.

Weather Summary

Expect a mostly cloudy day on Friday with flurries starting in the afternoon. Winds will be moderate from the NW with a high of -10c. A few cm of snow expected on Saturday. Colder for Sunday.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

Be especially cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.
Avoid convexities, steep unsupported terrain and rocky outcroppings.
Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.
Remote triggering is a concern, watch out for adjacent and overhead slopes.
Watch for areas of hard wind slab on alpine features.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.