Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 15th, 2026–Feb 16th, 2026

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Kootenay Boundary, Purcells, Bonnington, Grohman, Kootenay Pass, Norns, Ymir, Crawford, Moyie, St. Mary, Kokanee, Retallack, Valhalla, Whatshan.

New snow and wind will form sensitive storm slabs that may step down to weak layers within the complex upper snowpack.

Careful snowpack evaluation and conservative decision-making is key.

Confidence

Moderate

We are confident that there are persistent slabs in the snowpack, but uncertain about how likely they are to trigger.
We are uncertain due to a highly variable snowpack.

Avalanche Summary

On Saturday, several small size 1 to 1.5 storm slab avalanches and numerous dry loose were reported. Storm slabs were releasing down to the most recent surface hoar layer.

Several Mountain Information Network posts describe human-triggered slab avalanches failing on crusts and/or surface hoar layers down roughly 30 cm.

Looking forward, weak layers described in the snowpack summary are likely to remain sensitive to human-triggers as they are loaded with new snow.

Snowpack Summary

New snow and moderate to strong wind further buries weak layers in the upper snowpack. This region is highly variable with similar weak layers that vary widely in depth and distribution:

On February 13th a surface hoar layer and/or a crust on solar aspects was buried, it is down 10 to 20 cm.
On February 7th a surface hoar layer/crust layer (depending on aspect) was buried. Snow above this layer is settling and it is down 15 to 30 cm. Greater depths in wind loaded areas.
On January 26th, a surface hoar/crust layer sitting on a facet layer was buried and is down 50 to 70 cm.

This weak snowpack structure will continue to produce avalanches as new snow loads it.

The mid and lower snowpack remain well settled.

Weather Summary

Sunday Night
Mostly cloudy. 1 cm of snow. 30 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -8 °C.

Monday
Cloudy. 10 to 20 cm of snow. 30 km/h south ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -5 °C.

Tuesday
Mostly cloudy. 4 to 5 cm of snow. 20 km/h south ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -7 °C.

Wednesday
Mix of sun and clouds. 2 to 4 cm of snow. 10 km/h south ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -9 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

Be aware of the potential for remote triggering and large avalanches due to buried surface hoar.
Be especially cautious as you transition into wind-affected terrain.
Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.