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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 16th, 2020–Jan 17th, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Kananaskis.

Good skiing in sheltered areas but the deep persistent problem is hard to forecast. Be thinking about the consequences of a large avalanche as you travel. Forecasters still have high uncertainty in many terrain features. 

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the fact that deep persistent slabs are particularly difficult to forecast.

Weather Forecast

Light snowfalls will continue overnight and temperatures will become more seasonal. Winds are forecast to be just touching into moderate tomorrow out of the SW at the peaks but overall looks like a nice day. 

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were observed today but the light was poor in the light snowfalls. 

Snowpack Summary

Up to 15cm of snow has trickled in over the past few days wit h the cooler temperatures. There has been some noticeable facetting and weakening of the snowpack in thinner areas also. The Dec 31st facet/surface hoar interface is being found up to 2300m down 50cm and produced moderate sheers today at treeline. Wind slabs should be expected in alpine areas especially along ridgelines and in gullied/crossloaded terrain that a skier may trigger. If these windslabs fail, there is a good chance they will step down to the weak basal facets and involve the entire snowpack. Be thinking about the consequences of a large avalanche as you travel. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid lee and cross-loaded terrain.
  • Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.
  • Conditions may have improved, but be mindful that deep instabilities are still present.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.