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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 31st, 2020–Feb 1st, 2020

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Kananaskis.

All forecasts are saying that we are on deck for a major storm tomorrow. Avoid exposure to avalanche terrain, this would include exposure to avalanche runout zones.

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

As of Friday afternoon, a storm is just starting to approach us from the SW. We are expecting 30-40cm by tomorrow evening. Warm temps and strong winds will accompany the snow for the entire event. The daytime high will be -5 with a cooling trend as the front passes. Alpine wind speeds will hit 75km/hr and be steady out of the SW.

Avalanche Summary

Nothing new.

Snowpack Summary

Steady SW winds have kept the windslabs building. They are wide spread in the alpine on easterly aspects and extend well into treeline. Even open areas at valley bottom have a wind slab feel to them. Lots of crossloading in gullies at the moment. Given how these new slabs are formed from old snow, we are expecting a poor initial bond with any new snow. The midpack is still supportive at all elevations and travel is reasonable while we wait for the new snow to arrive. The ground layers remain the question mark. They may not tolerate a heavy load.

Terrain and Travel

  • Fresh wind slabs will likely form throughout the day, diligently watch for changing conditions.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.