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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 30th, 2020–Jan 31st, 2020

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast.

Avoid avalanche terrain while heavy rain saturates the snowpack.

Confidence

High - We are confident the likelihood of avalanche will increase with the arrival of the forecast weather.

Weather Forecast

Thursday night: 30-50 mm of rain to mountain top. Moderate southwest wind. Freezing level rising to 2500 m.

Friday: 60-100 mm of rain to mountain top. Extreme southwest winds. Freezing level 2500 m.

Saturday: 60-120 mm water equivalent in precipitation overnight, mostly falling as rain to mountain top, turning to snow in the early morning above 500 m. Clearing skies. Wind easing to light northwest. Freezing level dropping to 500 m by midday.

Sunday: Mix of sun and cloud with flurries bringing 5-15 cm new snow. Light southwest wind. Freezing level 400 m.

Avalanche Summary

On Wednesday, small (size 1) loose wet avalanches were reactive to skier traffic below 1200 m, running far and entraining mass. Loose wet avalanches are expected at all elevations with heavy rainfall Friday.

Snowpack Summary

The upper snowpack is becoming saturated to mountaintop with heavy rainfall. This will initially mean a loss of cohesion and widespread loose wet avalanche activity. Once refrozen by the following cooling trend, the snowpack will be one burly block with little avalanche potential, 150-250 cm deep around the peaks of the north shore mountains. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid avalanche terrain during periods of heavy rain.
  • The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.