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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 8th, 2020–Jan 9th, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead.

Give the new snow time to settle and bond before pushing into bigger terrain with higher consequences. Thursday's forecast calls for sunshine, which will promote instability on sun-affected slopes.

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

Wednesday night: Clear periods. Light to moderate northwest winds.

Thursday: A mix of sun and cloud. Light northwest winds. Alpine temperatures around -14.

Friday: Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries and a trace of new snow. Moderate southwest winds, becoming strong at ridgetop. Alpine high temperatures around -10.

Saturday: Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries and a trace of new snow. Light southwest winds. Alpine high temperatures around -7.

Avalanche Summary

Reports of avalanche activity in the Fernie area on Tuesday showed numerous storm slabs releasing naturally as well as with remote triggers from skier traffic, and with explosives. Avalanches generally ranged from size 1 (small) to size 2.5 (large). The bulk of this activity was observed on north to east aspects.

Looking forward, the recent snow should begin to form a more reliable bond with the old surface as our slab problems become increasingly limited to wind-loaded areas at higher elevations.

Snowpack Summary

The recent storm brought about 40-70 cm of new snow to the region over the early part of the week. The new snow buried recent widespread wind affected snow that extended well below treeline. Recent Cornice growth in the alpine has been notable.

Several crusts layers have formed in the mid to upper snowpack as a result of recent warming and rain events. The uppermost of these may have acted as a bed surface for recent storm slab avalanches at treeline and below.

The lower snowpack consists of weak faceted snow and decomposing crusts but has not been an active avalanche problem recently.

Terrain and Travel

  • Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
  • Avoid freshly wind loaded terrain features.
  • Avoid being on or under sun exposed slopes.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.