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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 6th, 2020–Jan 7th, 2020

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast.

Wet loose avalanches are expected to be widespread as the upper snowpack becomes saturated with rain. Above the rain-snow line, storm slabs will rapidly build and form very dangerous avalanche conditions. Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to rapidly fluctuating freezing levels.

Weather Forecast

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain below 1500 m, accumulation 30 to 45 mm, moderate to strong southwest wind, treeline temperature 2 C, freezing level 1700 m.

TUESDAY: Cloudy with rain, accumulation 40 to 70 mm, strong to extreme southwest wind, treeline temperature 3 C, freezing level 1600 m.

WEDNESDAY: Morning snowfall then clearing, accumulation 10 to 20 cm, light to moderate northwest wind, treeline temperature -5 C, freezing level 500 m.

THURSDAY: Clear skies, light northwest wind, treeline temperature -6 C, freezing level below valley bottom.

Avalanche Summary

Small storm slab avalanches were triggered by humans and explosives on Sunday. They were releasing within the recent storm snow.

As the snow switches to rain, avalanche activity is expected to increase. Wet loose avalanches are expected to occur below the rain-snow line and storm slab avalanches above.

Snowpack Summary

An increase of freezing level to around 1700 m and around 100 mm of forecast rain will soak the previously dry snowpack. The rain will rapidly increase the likelihood of wet loose avalanche activity Monday night into Tuesday. Above the rain-snow line, storm slabs will likely build and a natural avalanche cycle is possible.

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid avalanche terrain during periods of heavy rain.
  • Avoid traveling in runout zones. Avalanches have the potential to run to the valley floor.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.