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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 13th, 2021–Jan 14th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast.

Freezing levels are forecast to rise to the mountain top. This may break down the crust and initiate natural and human triggered loose wet avalanche activity. 

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to rapidly fluctuating freezing levels.

Weather Forecast

Thursday: A mix of sun and cloud and freezing levels rising through the day to 2500 m. 

Friday: Cloudy with gusty ridgetop wind. Up to 20 mm forecast overnight Thursday and freezing levels drop to 1000 m on Friday. 

Saturday: Cloudy with light to moderate West wind. Freezing levels spike to 1900 m.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches reported on Wednesday.

On Tuesday, numerous wet loose avalanches and small glide avalanches were reported. 

Depending on how warm the temperatures get on Thursday, another round of loose wet avalanches may happen by Thursday afternoon from steeper terrain features. Avoid slopes that have overhead hazards like cornices. 

Snowpack Summary

The recent storm saw 100 mm of precipitation by early Wednesday morning, with it falling mostly as rain to the mountain tops. As the temperatures rapidly dropped overnight Tuesday, some precipitation fell as snow in alpine locations. Only the highest peaks may have received snow possibly forming reactive storm/ wind slabs in those higher locations.

At treeline and below a rain-soaked/ saturated snowpack will form a firm crust as the temperatures drop Wednesday. This crust may start to break down mid-day on Thursday due to rising freezing levels. 

At treeline elevations, the mid-pack consists of several buried crusts, and the remainder of the snowpack is well-consolidated.

Terrain and Travel

  • Choose conservative terrain and watch for clues of instability.
  • Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.
  • Watch for unstable snow on specific terrain features, especially when the snow is moist or wet.
  • The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.