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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 18th, 2021–Jan 19th, 2021

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Northwest Coastal.

Another heavy punch of moisture and wind. Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of rapid loading from snow and wind.

Confidence

Moderate - We are confident the likelihood of avalanche will increase with the arrival of the forecast weather.

Weather Forecast

MONDAY NIGHT - Cloudy with flurries, snowfall increasing later in the day / increasing southwest wind, gusting upwards of 100 km/h / alpine low temperature near -1 / freezing level spiking overnight with extreme winds

TUESDAY - Snow starting late Monday, 25-35 cm / Strong southwest wind, gusting upwards of 80 km/h / alpine high temperature near -2 / freezing level 1000 m dropping to valley bottom

WEDNESDAY - Cloudy with isolated flurries / northwest wind, 20-30 km/h / alpine high temperature near -4 / freezing level valley bottom

THURSDAY - Cloudy with sunny breaks / northeast wind, 10-20 km/h / alpine high temperature near -8 / freezing level valley bottom

Avalanche Summary

Another natural avalanche cycle occurred Saturday night into Sunday morning: Storm slab avalanches to size 2.5 at treeline and above; large (size 2-3) wind slab avalanches failing in steep, lee alpine features; and small (size 1) wet-loose avalanches below treeline

A natural avalanche cycle occurred Thursday into Friday, large (size 2-3) storm slab avalanches were reported along highway corridors. The largest (size 3) avalanches were observed in wind-loaded start zones in the alpine and treeline, but also included below tree line avalanches to size 2 failing on unsupported features. Wet-loose avalanches to size 1.5 were reported from steep rocky slabs below tree line.

There were a few natural avalanches up to size 3 reported in the north of the region on Wednesday. There was also one remotely triggered size 3 persistent slab avalanche reported in the north of the region.

There was a natural avalanche cycle reported on Tuesday, additionally explosives triggered numerous avalanches up to size 2.5 and people triggered a few size 1 avalanches.

Last Monday, there were reports of widespread natural and explosives triggered avalanches up to size 3. The largest avalanches were reported in the north of the region where there has been more recent snow. The avalanches being reported closer to Terrace were generally in the size 1-2 range.

Snowpack Summary

Storm snow in the last week totals upwards from 60-100+ cm, with 20-50 cm fresh, lower-density snow over older, more settled snow. Southerly winds reached into mature trees and mild temperatures have encouraged settlement. Below 800 m rain on snow produced a moist snowpack, a wet-loose problem will persist where the snowpack is moist or wet.

For the most part, the snowpack is well settled and deeper instabilities in the snow pack are of little concern. We're tracking a few uncertainties, in the Shames area, a weak layer of surface hoar has been reported in sheltered areas down around 120-180 cm. And a bit further north in the Nass/Sterling/Beaupre areas, there is potentially still concern about an older weak layer of surface hoar overlying a crust that is now roughly 180-200 cm deep. And in the far north of the region, there is concern about weak snow at the bottom of the snowpack.

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.
  • Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.