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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 15th, 2021–Jan 16th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

Jan 10th surface hoar and thin temp crusts reside under the recent storm snow. Take time to dig for weak layer distribution under the recent storm snow. Expect thin sun crust on steep solar terrain.

Weather Forecast

Cloudy with sunny periods and isolated flurries producing a trace of precipitation.

An alpine temperature of  -7 C accompanied by moderate SW ridge top winds.

Freezing level: 1100 metres.

Saturday calls for similar weather with freezing level dropping to 800m.

Snowpack Summary

The recent storm dropped 40cm snow burying a thin crust from sun and/or rime in exposed terrain. Jan 10 surface hoar resides under the storm snow in sheltered terrain at and below treeline. The spotty Dec 26 surface hoar is down 70-90cm. The Dec 7th surface hoar/crust/facet layer is down 1.5m. Crusts with facets persist at the base of the snowpack.

Avalanche Summary

Field team members remotely triggered a size 1 slab on Jan 10 surface hoar at 1900m in the west end of the park. The Lone Pine path glide crack on Mt Tupper released to ground size 3 yesterday. Wednesday's natural avalanche cycle and avalanche control produced numerous size 3 slides and even a couple size 4.

Confidence

Due to the number of field observations

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.