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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 25th, 2020–Dec 26th, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Cariboos.

 A buried weak layer has produced recent avalanche activity. The best approach is to continue to select conservative terrain. 

Confidence

Low - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations. Uncertainty is due to how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength.

Weather Forecast

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with isolated flurries, light south wind, alpine temperature near -8 C.

SATURDAY: Scattered flurries, accumulation 3-5 cm, light to moderate west wind, alpine temperature near -8 C.

SUNDAY: Mainly cloudy with sunny breaks, light to moderate west wind, alpine temperature near -10 C.

MONDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, light north wind, alpine temperature near -11 C.

Avalanche Summary

On Monday there was a report of a human triggered avalanche that was suspected to have run on buried surface hoar. The MIN report can be view here.

Snowpack Summary

Winds blowing from a variety of directions have redistributed new snow from last week and built slabs in lee features at upper elevations.

An active weak layer is now down 40 to 70 cm below the surface. The distribution of this layer is variable. In some areas it's surface hoar and in others it may be surface hoar on top of a crust and in others it is very hard to find if it exists at all. The bond at this interface is poor and avalanches have recently failed on this interface in the east the region. 

Near the base of the snowpack, a crust that was buried in early November can be found. This crust likely has weak facets associated with it. There have been no recent avalanches reported on this layer, though it may be possible to trigger from shallow, rocky terrain.

Terrain and Travel

  • Be careful as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Recent wind has varied in direction so watch for wind slabs on all aspects.
  • If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.