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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 17th, 2020–Dec 18th, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

Regions

Glacier.

All winter permit areas are closed today. We are in a period of prolonged storm with increasing avalanche danger.

Weather Forecast

Flurries today with accumulations around 6cm.

Alpine temperature: High -6 °C.

Ridge wind west: 30-45 km/h.

Freezing level: 1300 metres.

Friday periods of snow accompanied by strong SW winds, with accumulations around 20cm.

Saturday the storm cycle continues with another 10cm cooling temps and strong SW winds.

Snowpack Summary

10cm+/- of new snow brings our storm total to ~50cm in the last 72hours. Mod S-SW winds and mild temperatures are forming soft storm slabs at all elevations. Weak layers; Dec 13 Surface Hoar and Dec 7 crust/Surface Hoar are in the top 60cm.  Deeper in the snowpack the Nov 5th  crust is currently unreactive to stability tests or skiers.

Avalanche Summary

A skier went  for a ride in a size 1.5 slab avalanche  below treeline yesterday. They were uninjured.  Numerous avalanches to size 3 along the highway corridor yesterday morning. Of note were slab releases initiating at below treeline elevations. Winds are picking up this morning with  corresponding new avalanche activity.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.