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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 26th, 2020–Mar 27th, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Northwest Inland.

Avalanche hazard will increase as new snow and elevated winds develop a surface instability around the region.

Confidence

Low - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations. Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain.

Weather Forecast

Thursday night: Cloudy with isolated flurries, up to 10 cm. Alpine low temperature -4 C. Moderate southwest wind.

Friday: Cloudy with scattered flurries, 5-10 cm. Alpine high temperature -4 C. Strong west wind.

Saturday: Flurries and snow, 10-15 cm. Alpine high temperature -5 C. Moderate southwest wind.

Sunday: Flurries and snow, 15-20 cm. Alpine high temperature -6 C. Moderate southwest wind with strong gusts.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanche observations were reported this week, this comes from a very limited observation network. 

Looking forward, new snow and wind forecast through Friday are likely to form small but touchy new slabs in leeward terrain, especially near ridgetop.

Snowpack Summary

Flurries will be quickly impacted by strong winds, redistributing loose snow and building slabs. Surface conditions over the region are likely a mix of recent wind slabs and wind-affected snow as well as melt freeze crust on south aspects and below about 1100 metres.

A weak layer of surface hoar crystals buried early March may be found around 30 to 50 cm deep, particularly in sheltered terrain around treeline. Recent observations of this layer are lacking.

An early-season layer of faceted grains and melt-freeze crust near the base of the snowpack likely lingers in high alpine features. The most suspect locations to trigger this layer would be where the snowpack is thin near rocky outcroppings. Large loads, such as cornice fall, may have the potential to trigger it.

Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for avalanche hazard to increase throughout the day.
  • Make conservative terrain choices and avoid overhead hazard.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.