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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 23rd, 2020–Mar 24th, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Purcells.

Shallow wind slabs may be forming in high elevation terrain and a deep weak layer remains a concern.

Confidence

Low -

Weather Forecast

MONDAY NIGHT: Freezing level at valley bottom, light west/southwest wind, a few centimetres of snow possible.

TUESDAY: Broken cloud cover, freezing level rising to about 1400 m, light southwest wind, a few centimetres of snow possible.

WEDNESDAY: Scattered cloud cover, freezing level around 1200 m, light variable wind, no significant snowfall expected.

THURSDAY: Clear skies in the morning with some afternoon cloud buildup, freezing level around 1500 m, light to moderate west/southwest wind, no significant snowfall expected.

Avalanche Summary

Over the past several days, avalanche activity was reported as natural loose wet avalanches (size 1-2.5) running in steep, sun-exposed terrain. One large (size 2.5) cornice failed as a result of explosive mitigation.

Last week, there was a report of a skier remotely triggering (from a distance) a large (size 2) deep persistent slab avalanche at 2600 m on a northwest aspect. The avalanche was triggered from a thin spot, released 40-80 cm deep, and ran on depth hoar near the base of the snowpack.

Snowpack Summary

Sunday's storm only produced a few cm of snow with light to moderate wind mainly out of the southwest. 

The new snow is falling on a variety of snow surfaces, consisting of sun crusts, hard wind-affected snow, and soft faceted snow. There have also been reports of surface hoar forming on sheltered, shady slopes. See this MIN for a helpful illustration from nearby Glacier National Park. It will be important to track the depth, cohesiveness, and bond of the new snow to these various old snow surfaces across aspects and elevations where you are travelling.

Cornices are large and looming. Surface hoar buried February 22 may be found 50-100 cm deep. Avalanche activity on this layer was last reported March 11th. 

Deeply buried facets lurk near the bottom of the snowpack. This layer has been responsible for sporadic deep persistent slab avalanches, usually triggered from shallow, rocky start zones.

Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.
  • Make observations and assess conditions continually as you travel.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.