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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 5th, 2025–Feb 6th, 2025

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Glacier.

Reverse wind-loading of Alpine start-zones, coupled with the fact these fresh slabs sit upon a weak drought layer, may catch riders off-guard.

It might be time to choose more conservative objectives. Read the forecasters blog "Shifting your Mindset" for more info on navigating our current snowpack.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Natural avalanche activity has eased.

With fresh slabs perched atop a weak layer, human triggering is a very real possibility. Neighboring operations are reporting rider & remote triggered avalanches on the Jan 30th layer.

A sz 2 wind slab was triggered by a skier part way down Forever Young, resulting in injuries.

A sz 1.5 wind slab on the Ravens was observed while flying to the above accident.

Snowpack Summary

Funky variable winds have caused widespread wind effect. This wind effect is most prominent in the alpine & treeline but does exist BTL in areas affected by localised downflow.

20-40cms of recent storm snow has buried a weak layer of surface hoar, facets and/or suncrust (Jan 30).

The midpack is either firm, wind pressed surfaces or low density sugary snow in sheltered areas.

The Jan 7th layer is down 50-80cm, comprised of surface hoar and/or a thin crust on steep S aspects.

Weather Summary

Continuing cold with ridge winds decreasing later in the week.

Tonight Clear with cloudy periods. Alpine low -20°C. Ridge wind W-10km/h.

Thurs A mix of sun & cloud. Alpine high -16°C. Light ridge wind W-15km/h.

Fri A mix of sun & cloud. Alpine high -15°C. Ridge wind: SE 10km/hr. Freezing Level at valley bottom.

Sat Cloud & sun with isolated flurries. Alpine high -17°C. Ridge wind W-15-25km/h.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Make conservative terrain choices and avoid overhead hazard.
  • Be aware of the potential for remote triggering and large avalanches due to buried surface hoar.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.