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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Nov 28th, 2021–Nov 29th, 2021

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Glacier.

Rogers Pass continues to get hammered by storms, and the brief respite in weather on Monday will be followed up by several more stormy days.

Avoid all avalanche terrain until the mountain slopes can adjust to this new, heavy load.

Weather Forecast

The message from meteorologists and their weather models is simple:  snow and high freezing levels.

Tonight: Snow, 10cm, FZL 1600m, mod/strong SW winds

Mon: Flurries, 8cm, FZL 1600m, mod/strong SW winds

Tues: Snow, 30cm, FZL 1600m, mod/strong SW winds

Wed: Snow, 20cm, FZL 1800m, mod/strong SW winds

Thurs: Snow, 15cm, FZL 1700m, light W winds

Snowpack Summary

120mm of precip in the last 4 days, with mod/strong SW winds, has created fresh storm slabs at all elevations. The mid and lower snowpack is generally rounded and well bonded. Below 1900m the November 15th crust exists in the mid-snowpack. Early season hazards have been freshly buried below 1700m, slide over the lumps and bumps with caution.

Avalanche Summary

The past 3 days has brought a widespread avalanche cycle up to size 3.5 from steep, wind loaded terrain. Temps are continuing to rise with the snowfall, ensuring that the natural avalanches will continue rolling until things cool off and the snowfall ceases.

Artillery avalanche control Sun am saw numerous sz 3-3.5 avalanches run to valley bottom.

Confidence

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.