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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 8th, 2021–Dec 9th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Jasper.

Variable snowfall amounts over the past 24hrs and strong SW winds are cross loading features and creating new wind slabs on northerly aspects tree line and above.

Weather Forecast

Thursday: Isolated flurries. Accumulation: Trace. Alpine temperature: Low -16 C, High -13 C. Ridge wind W: 20 km/h gust to 50

Friday: Scattered flurries. Precipitation: 5cm. Alpine temperature: Low -15 C, High -12 C. Ridge wind SW: 25-45 km/h

Saturday: Snow: Accumulation: 22cm. Alpine temperature: Low -14 C, High -9 C. Ridge wind SW 20 km/h gust 60

Snowpack Summary

Trace to 10cm new snow from passing squalls being redistributed by moderate to strong SW winds; exposed alpine features continue to be scoured. In sheltered areas 20-40cm settled storm snow sits atop a supportive midpack. Our basal crust/facet/depth hoar combo near the ground remains a layer of concern. Snowpack depth 100-140cm Icefields area.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches have been reported. Although natural avalanche activity has tapered off, human triggering of large avalanches remains possible especially in features with variable thin to thick snow depths in the alpine and at treeline.  Snowpack tests on Monday produced moderate sudden results on our November deep persistent layer.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.